Forex Weekly Forecast & FX Analysis August 02 - 06
EUR/USD
The euro against the dollar last week made a rather strong upward movement. It is interesting because several significant events took place at once: the price consolidated above the moving averages, consolidated above the level of 1.1863, and the oscillator rose into the overbought area. At the same time, the histogram also continues to grow and updates local maximums. It is very important to note here that the global trend of this currency pair is downward, but at the moment we are seeing an attempt to reverse this trend. Therefore, it is still premature to trade up. Such a contract could only be opened if the price consolidated above the 1.1900 level. If a downward movement takes place and the price turns out to be below the level of 1.1863, then it will be possible to open a descending contract.
GBP/USD
The euro versus dollar currency pair is in many respects relevant for the British pound versus the US dollar currency pair. Likewise, the downtrend is showing its influence, and the market made a rather strong upward movement, as a result of which it turned out to be above the moving average and the highest important psychological level of 1.3850. We also note that the oscillator has moved up into the overbought area, and the histogram is rapidly growing and renewing highs. In this regard, we can consider options for trading up, but first of all we expect that the market will bounce back down to the level indicated above, and only after that it will be possible to open a contract.
USD/JPY
The US dollar is trading against the Japanese yen with elements of significantly high volatility, but the movement is mostly horizontal. It is very important to note that the horizontal movement is confirmed by indicators, each of which is significantly narrowing, and this is clearly visible both in the oscillator and in the histogram. Therefore, we again speak of the great significance of the levels 109.630 and 110.200. Taking into account the fact that here and now the market is near the lower level, we can consider options for trading up.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar continues to develop a downtrend against the US dollar. The most important characteristic of the current market segment is the presence of divergence between the price and the oscillator. If you look at the indicators of the oscillator, then the indicator is growing, while the market is moving down. As for the histogram, it does not show significant volatility elements and is built mainly near zero values. Taking into account the general trend, as well as the current approach of the scene to the moving averages, we can consider options for trading for a fall in the area of the 0.7327 level.
USD/CAD
The US dollar against the Canadian dollar last week made a way out of the narrow price range, the significance of which we spoke about in the previous weekly review. Now we state the fact that the price turned out to be below the very important level of 1.2540 and at the same time below the level of the moving averages. All indicators also made a strong downward movement and updated their minimum values for more than a few months. The oscillator is in the oversold zone. Therefore, we have every reason to consider the possibility of trading down, however, the contract can be opened only if there is a corrective upward movement to the area of the designated level.
USD/CHF
The past week led to a rather strong downward movement of the US dollar against the Swiss franc. As a result, the important level of 0.9061 was reached. Please note that at the same time, the oscillator sank into the oversold area. If we consider the price movement in conjunction with the histogram, then the divergence is clearly traced. Nevertheless, we note the fact that the formation of a downtrend is now dominant for this currency pair, however, taking into account the totality of the previous factors, we can consider options for trading upward as a corrective movement in order to re-form a downtrend.
USD/RUB
The trading of the US dollar against the Russian ruble continues to a large extent within the upward range, the significance of which we have been talking about for many weeks. It is typical that the market periodically makes attempts to go beyond this range, but quickly returns to its boundaries. The current section is characterized by the fact that the price is testing the lower border of the channel and at the same time is near the important level of 73.21. The indicator does not give any signals for trading, therefore, we rely solely on the price position. The price tells us that now there are good conditions for opening an upward contract.
Gold
The price of gold continues to move horizontally with no clear trend. In this situation, we pay attention to indicators that speak of uncertainty and also confirm the absence of a trend. First of all, this can be seen from the histogram, which literally stuck to the target values and cannot significantly move away from them. The oscillator, at the minimum price movement, literally reached the overbought area in just a few candles. Therefore, we expect that such an upward movement was excessive and the market will need a correction with a return to the sideways range of 1895.834 and 1824.612
